ABI Research has noted an important milestone for 802.11 wireless LANs – in calendar year 2011, the company predicts 1 billion Wi-Fi chip sets will be shipped in that year alone, up from more than 500 million for 2009. By the end of 2012, 5 billion cumulative chips will have been shipped since the first such devices emerged in 2000.
This raises the question of ubiquity for all types of subnotebook platforms. Philip Solis, research practice director and author of the report at ABI, said that virtually all netbooks and smartbooks will ship with standard Wi-Fi connectivity by 2012, while a significant majority of smartphones will carry the chips as well. Given that the smartphone category remains voice-centric, with data as an adjunct, Solis said that the widespread use of Wi-Fi is indicative of how much a wireless LAN capability is considered a given.
The report singled out Qualcomm’s launch of a MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) 802.11n Wi-Fi solution in 2009. The 802.11n version of the standard is the first to use multiple antennas. Qualcomm launched the product with wireline access points in mind, but ABI is anticipating the controller for 802.11n moving directly into handhelds. Solis predicted this protocol will be the dominant one shipped in 2010, with the MIMO products quickly replacing all legacy 802.11g chipsets in the market.
Given that smartbooks emphasize long battery life and low power dissipation as their primary features, it might seem counter-intuitive that the higher-power 802.11n chips would move to handheld platforms. Solis said it’s all about economies of scale. Chip manufacturers want to produce as high a volume of the same chip as possible. The MAC (media access control) chip for 802.11n can handle single-antenna Wi-Fi networks as well, so chip vendors will shift all MAC production to 802.11n, and simply not use multiple antennas or complex RF chips in the handheld devices.
ABI Research’s study said that Broadcom Corp. was still the company to beat in Wi-Fi chipset shipments, and while market share numbers may fluctuate quarter to quarter, Solis said he expected Broadcom to continue its top ranking for the foreseeable future. Market share numbers are listed in ABI’s Wi-Fi IC Market Data.
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